Focus on the Global South- India - Obama Wins the Nomination, but Can He Win It All?

Obama has been claiming victory for the past few days, looking ahead to the greater presidential election contest with McCain for this November, but he will now be able to officially take on the task. It will be a mighty task for him as well, as Obama will have to overcome several obstacles in order to defeat McCain for the presidency. First, he will need to regain control of several key Clinton-supporting constituents. Clinton stayed afloat in this nomination contest for so long because she managed to hold on to specific groups, and Obama will need to keep them from switching to the Republican Party because Clinton has lost. These major demographic groups include Latinos and working-class whites. Both groups were ardently supportive of Clinton in her campaign and could potentially lean towards McCain unless Obama manages to reach further into these groups. Latinos are a very powerful sector of the American voting populace, as they now constitute the second-largest ethno-racial group in the United States. Traditionally, Latinos have voted for Democrats, but with the increase in Latino voters and low support during the nomination campaign for Obama, it is not clear whether or not Obama—and the Democratic Party—will be able to mobilize these votes. As for working-class whites, the votes could go either way. Based on the high disapproval of President Bush’s policies, many of the typically Republican-leaning working-class voters were leaning towards the Democrats, but through Clinton. Again, as in the case of the Latino voters, Obama will surely need to gather this contingency to compete with McCain.

Obama must now pursue the campaigning efforts of McCain, who has been focused on the presidency for a few months now. McCain has managed to earn the Republican nomination so smoothly because he dominated the campaign among other Republican candidates very early in the race. His ability to sweep several key Republican states early in the race has allowed him to assume the Republican nomination and focus his efforts on the presidential elections. He has made significant progress in getting through his presidential campaigning while Obama is just starting. As a result, Obama needs to hastily restructure his campaign to emphasize the presidency. This process is already taking place, as the Obama campaign group recently accepted the offer to participate in a series of ten town hall-style debates across the United States with McCain from now until August, when the Democratic Convention takes place.

Another obstacle Obama must surely confront involves his image. For several Americans, he lacks one. Many Americans just see him as another Democrat hoping to reform the presidency from the hands of the Bush regime, but in actuality, they know little about his life, background, or past. Many anxieties still linger since the supposedly controversial remarks made by Obama’s former pastor, but the issues surrounding those comments have calmed considerably.

Although there is outright prejudice and racism in some cases, but for the most part Americans honestly are afraid of Obama because he has such a short track record. He has not been in office, either state or national senator, for a very long time, and for many Americans, experience is a crucial factor. As a result, many simply do not know what he truly is capable of. Although some might consider McCain a little extreme in regards to social spending and furthering war, he at least possesses a long track record as a congressman, senator, and governor for the state of Arizona. In many cases, there is a desire for change with Obama, but a fear of too much change and the unknown flows through these sentiments.

Obama must also regain control of the race in a very quick manner, winning back states for the Democratic Party. After the domination of the Midwestern and Southern states by Bush in 2004, the Democratic Party—and now Obama—have to shift the attitudes of these states and voters. It will not be easy, but it surely must occur if Obama wants electoral success in November. There are several swing states that Obama needs to capitalize on, and there is potential if he manages to maintain his current voter contingencies and the former supporters of Clinton as well. He can pull the independent vote too, largely because many of these undecided voters are aware that McCain in office will likely serve to continue the legacies of the Bush Administration. Along with recapturing votes, he will surely need to regain momentum, getting out of the losing streak that he was suffering with Clinton. Clinton had been winning the majority of the primaries leading up to Obama’s nomination, but Obama was so close that he only needed a few delegates to clinch the nomination. As a result, Obama became the Democratic Party candidate despite a losing streak over these past few weeks. He has to get out of this funk if he is going to catch McCain.

The biggest question regarding Obama is how he will perform, and if he can live up to his potential. He is adept at speaking, capable of delivering very emotional and eloquent speeches to mobilize the American public, but will these words turn into action? He recognizes the United States as a superpower, but does he see the state of liberal empire that has formed? He still supports the War on Terror, although he seeks to end the war in Iraq. Will he get the United States out of Iraq? Will he move the war forces to Iran? What about the destruction continuing in Afghanistan? He wishes to create universal health care programs, but will he live up to this promise as well? What about the concepts of the free market? Will he continue to allow the destruction of local business and livelihoods by the free market mechanisms or will he provide a social control? All of his dreams and promises sound very appealing, but will he fulfill them?

* Matthew Pruter, student of University of California, Berkeley and interning with Focus on the Global South India