Excerpts from an email from Aileen Kwa (Focus staffer in Geneva)

"Some quick notes:
There are many delegations that are really upset with the Falconer text - seen as incorporating all of the US and EU positions (US Domestic Supports- about 17 billion is ok with the US); Sensitive products for EU (4-5 % is ok for the EU). But they are really angered by the Chair saying that SP will not be exempted from tariff reductions- everything on SP was rejected, the designation, treatment and number!
 
They also saw the Chair's suggestions for going back to the Uruguay Round formula cuts in agriculture for developing countries as dangerous:

1) It is an attempt to buy India over. (India has high tariff rates - so average cuts of may be 36% with line by line cuts of 15%. Falconer did not give numbers in the paper, but some people are speculating these might be the numbers - would work better for India).

This could lead to India giving up their fight within the G4.
 
The UR formula would not work so well for countries with lower bound tariff rates - e.g. Sri Lanka, Philippines, Honduras, Cote d'Ivoire. The tiered formula could work better because lower tariffs get cut less. Although many African countries on the whole do have high bound tariffs - about 100%.
 
But in return for the UR formula, developing countries would give up exemptions from tariff cuts (the 50% of SP lines they were asking for).

2) The sense is that US and EU are VERY close together in their positions now. Much more than a month ago. And when they iron out the final details, delegations here are expecting that they (and more so in capitals) will come under a lot of pressure.
 
3) The G4 process is very intense. 2 ministerial meetings is expected in May and 2 more in June. EU really wants to wrap up an agreement by end June before the German term runs out. The last G4 ministerial will be 16-18 June. And it is expected that something might emerge from there.
 
4) All of these G4 moves are perfectly choreographed with the so-called "multilateral process". Many say that whilst the Falconer paper attempts to look objective, he has really slipped in the G4 discussions- the areas where G4 has discussed are the ones that have been developed in the Falconer paper- Domestic Supports for US, Sensitive Products, and SPs. The blending of the Amber and Blue boxes was also discussed in the G4, but NEVER discussed in the multilateral setting, and it found its way into the Falconer paper. So the Falconer paper is really the basis of what could be a G4 deal.
 
One delegation speculated that what Falconer is aiming for are "ranges", not specific numbers. These "ranges" will be put before Ministers to then decide. And that is what the Falconer paper does- he was testing the "range" for Domestic Supports, Sensitive Products etc. And he was happy although after being blasted at the informal Special Session discussing his paper last week, because he said that delegations had disagreed with either the high end or low end of the range, but nobody questioned the range.

2nd installment of Falconer paper expected on Monday 14 May. This will be followed by 2 weeks of "Room F" meetings - i.e. small group of about 25 delegations invited by the Chair to look at specific issues. The modalities paper is expected by early June.
 
Once that is out, NAMA modalities will follow.
 
Delegations here are bracing themselves for Lamy to spring a mini ministerial either in late June or more likely in early July.
 
If in case the G4 process still stalls, then some say that Lamy himself will step in to put in his text, as Chair of the TNC, and this will be the strategy for July, and then a mini ministerial later in July.
 
The delegations we met appealed to NGOs to step up campaigning at the national level!!! The 2 main issues Venezuela highlighted are SPs and the coefficient for NAMA. Some also mentioned the need to expose the Green Box, which the EU and US simply do not want to touch or discuss. Names of several developing countries that are working against developing country interests were also mentioned - Paraguay, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Colombia and Pakistan.
 
Brazil is apparently also trying to push the Pakistan SP paper within the G20 - they cannot do it too overtly, but there is a sense that they take the opportunity bring the issues raised in that paper to the fore when they get the chance. They have also taken the position that the Falconer paper is a good basis on which to continue negotiations, whilst some others such as Bolivia within the G20 has been saying it is NOT a basis for negotiations.
 
The G20 is having a Ministerial meeting on 11 June in Geneva - once the modalities paper is out.
 
Best, Aileen
Focus on the Global South