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Blogs J Purugganan Businessmen may back GMA as ‘lesser evil’
Blogs J Purugganan Businessmen may back GMA as ‘lesser evil’ | Businessmen may back GMA as ‘lesser evil’ |
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By Neil V. Mugas, Reporter, Sunday Times, January 4, 2004 Filipino businessmen may choose President Arroyo over the other presidential candidates not because of confidence in her government but because they don’t want to take a chance with the others, a respected business analyst said Saturday. Interviewed by The Manila Times, Walden Bello said, “Businessmen may probably be less unhappy if Mrs. Arroyo wins in the 2004 election. This, however, does not necessarily mean that they have confidence in a government that does not enjoy popularity.” Businessmen, Bello said, may go for the President because they know how she responds to the needs of the business sector. “They would much rather support the devil they know than the devil they don’t know,” Bello said. He noted that businessmen are aware that no one among the present crop of presidential candidates offers a formula to solve the long-time structural depression, which hampers economic development. No one among the candidates seem to be focused on programs and everybody is preoccupied with political propaganda, Bello added. If the choice is narrowed down to Mrs. Arroyo and the actor Fernando Poe Jr., who is widely popular among the masses, businessmen may back the President, fearing a severe economic downturn should Poe win, Bello said. He also sees the peso taking a heavy beating in the foreign-exchange market if the presidential election develops into a close match. He warned that electoral fraud could trigger deep tension and instability. If the tension mounts, the peso could depreciate P60 to the dollar. “A fairly close election may give rise to suspicions of cheating. This is the signal of deeper instability. An increased level of [electoral] tension and the people’s lack of confidence [in the results of the election] will be reflected in the dollar outflow. The peso may then reach P58 to P60 to a dollar shortly before or after the election,” Bello said. He also warned that because the Philippines has an import-dependent economy, the depreciation of the peso could push up the prices of several commodities and lead to inflation. The only way to avoid a possible depreciation, Bello said, is for a clear winner to emerge in the election. “The least bad solution is to have a significant edge in the vote. This doesn’t mean that there should be a landslide, but that there should be a clear winner,” he said. |
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