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By Walden Bello*
(This article originally came out under the author's commentary Perspective in Business World, Nov. 2, 2001.)
Desperate is the word to describe the antics of the trade superpowers on the
eve of the Fourth Ministerial of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Doha,
Qatar.
Tremendous pressure is being exerted on developing countries to endorse a new
round of trade negotiations, and the weapons include manipulation of the WTO's
undemocratic system of decision-making and blunter forms of trade blackmail.
The majority of developing countries want the Ministerial to focus on matters
related to the implementation of the commitments made under the Uruguay Round.
This position was laid out in a recent declaration of the Group of 77, which
identified "104 implementation issues" that needed to be "meaningfully
resolved, with urgency before the Fourth Ministerial Meeting and without any
extraneous linkages."
Developing countries have
simply been groaning under the weight of implementing the 28 different sub-agreements
that comprised the Uruguay Round agreement, while the big trading powers have
refused or been slow to implement their commitments to provide greater market
access in agriculture and textiles to developing countries or cut back the massive
subsidization of their agricultural interests.
The European Union and the
United States have put some of their differences aside -- temporarily -- to
present a common front for a new round of trade negotiations that would focus
on the so-called ''new issues'' of investment, competition policy, government
procurement, and trade facilitation - essentially the same issues that formed
their common agenda prior to the disastrous WTO Ministerial in December 1999.
Learning from Seattle, the
EU and US have de-emphasized their disagreement on agricultural trade issues,
and the US apparently does not intend to make the linkage between trade and
labour standards--a key point of conflict with developing countries in Seattle--an
issue in Doha.
Unbalanced Ministerial
Draft
Despite this, many developing
countries are up in arms over the draft declaration for the Ministerial meeting.
To them, the document is an example of the sort of underhanded tactics that
the big trading powers are resorting to. Proponents of the document say it is
''balanced''. The problem, however, lies in emphasis and nuance. According to
Aileen Kwa, a Geneva-based analyst who monitors the WTO for Focus on the Global
South, the draft does not emphasize the priority that the majority of WTO members'
place on implementation issues, the ''Special and Differential Treatment'' of
developing countries, greater access to developed country markets, and reviews
of the agreements on Trade Related Investment Measures (TRIMs), Trade Related
Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs), and services (GATS).
On the other hand, the draft
projects an alleged consensus on negotiations on the issues of competition policy,
investment, government procurement, and trade facilitation that are the priorities
of the minority of rich and powerful trading countries.
''Despite clearly stated positions that the developing countries are unwilling
to go into a new round until past implementation and decision-making are addressed,"
says Kwa, "the draft declaration favorably positions the launching of a
comprehensive new round with an open agenda.''
The draft has been openly denounced by Nigeria as "one-sided" and "showing not much regard for our countries." Bitter complaints from the poor countries prompted Stuart Harbinson of Hong Kong, chair of the WTO General Council, to walk out of a briefing in Geneva.
Non-Transparent Processes at Work
The draft was a product of consultations conducted among an inner circle of
about 20-25 participants -- the so-called Green Room process that effectively
excludes most of the members of the WTO. In the lead-up to Qatar, this exclusive
process has already held two ''mini-ministerials'', one in Mexico at the end
of August and another in Singapore on October 13-14.
How one gets invited to these meetings is a mystery to many. Kwa cites the case
of one ambassador from a transition economy who was promised an invitation to
a Green Room meeting but the WTO Secretariat but never got one. Then there was
the case of an African ambassador who wanted to attend the Singapore mini-ministerial.
When he approached the WTO secretariat for an invitation, he was told they were
not hosting the meeting. When he tried the Singapore mission in Geneva, the
response was they were dimply coordinating the meeting and were not in a position
to send out invitations.
Developing country disaffection with the Green Room process was one of the reasons
the Third Ministerial collapsed in 1999. At that time, Charlene Barshefsky,
then US Trade Representative, admitted that the WTO decision-making process
was non-transparent and inequitable and had to be changed. Stephen Byers, the
UK Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, was even more emphatic, saying
that the "WTO will not be able to continue in its present form. There has
to be fundamental and radical change in order for it to meet the needs and aspirations
of all 134 of its members."
That moment of candor was, however, forgotten quickly as the developed countries
realized that in an organization like the WTO, where the developing countries
are in the majority, the big powers can only dominate through such non-democratic
mechanisms as the Green Room and the so-called ''Consensus System''.
Barely two months after Seattle, Mike Moore, WTO director general, told
developing countries at the UNCTAD X gathering in Bangkok in February 2000
that the Green Room/consensus system was ''non-negotiable''. And there the matter
has lain ever since.
Capitalizing on Tragedy
The economic superpowers have not wasted any opportunity to push for a new trade
round. The smoke had not yet cleared from the ruins of the World Trade Centre
in New York before US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick and EU Trade Commissioner
Pascal Lamy seized on the tragedy to press for even greater trade liberalization
via the WTO and other mechanisms, asserting that free trade was one of the best
ways of countering terrorism. Others have been more brazen: at a recent conference
in Budapest, David Hartridge, an influential senior official at the WTO Secretariat,
openly declared that the September 11 terrorists and activists against corporate-driven
globalization shared a propensity for "violent behavior" and warned
people from going to Geneva for demonstrations against the WTO in mid-November
because "there will be violence".
While the developing countries held the line in the months after the disastrous
collapse of the Seattle Ministerial in December 1999, many observers fear that
their resolve might now be weakening in the face of concerted pressure from
the developed countries. Aside from being subjected to the WTO's exclusionary
decision-making process, some countries are being bludgeoned more directly.
According to Shefali Sharma of the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy
(IATP), the US has sent letters to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and several
other countries revoking their preferential trade status on some trade agreements
because of their opposition to liberalization of government procurement, which
is at the top of the US agenda for the Ministerial.
Last Hurrah?
The powerful trading countries may well get their way and ram through a declaration
that agrees to a comprehensive round of trade negotiations in Doha. But the
greatest obstacle to trade liberalization may no longer be opposition or reluctance
on the part of developing countries but the global economy itself, which is
contracting very quickly owing precisely to the accelerated interlocking of
economies brought about by globalization and liberalization. In both developed
and developing countries, pressures to save domestic industries, focus on domestic-demand-led
growth, and counteract the vulnerabilities of export-led economies at a time
of a deep global recession will probably stymie any significant movement toward
more liberalization.
The Fourth Ministerial may well turn out to be the last hurrah of the WTO and
the project of radical economic globalization of which it was the crown jewel.
*Walden Bello is executive
director of Focus on the Global South, a research, analysis, and advocacy program
based in Bangkok, Thailand, and professor of sociology and public administration
at the University of the Philippines.
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